NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c29244c095a6ca383c77dca35bd2a5b971caee471a85104a5d6e75375763d51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Chargers, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Giants | 60c | 36,231$21,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,351.81 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Chargers | 41c | 31,860$13,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,060.09 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Giants | 59c | 20,002$11,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,201 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Chargers | 39c | 19,980$7,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,792.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Chargers | 39c | 5,002$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.6 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Giants | 60c | 2,033$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.93 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Chargers | 40c | 1,778$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.11 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Giants | 59c | 1,558$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.8 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c9…c193backed Chargers | 42c | 646.29$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Chargers | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Giants | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Chargers | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Chargers | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6849…fbdfbacked Giants | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Giants | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Giants | 59c | 36.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-7.5)this page
- Chargers vs. GiantsGiants won
- Chargers vs. Giants: O/U 43.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Giants: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Giants won
- Spread: Chargers (-4.5)Giants won
- Spread: Chargers (-6.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.