College Football · resolved market
Will Boise State beat UNLV?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cfd509894b1045f171e6ed2e4af4d44f596808fcc409b6b18dd6529940ddd38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stof Boise St, UNLV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1608…a990backed UNLV | 22c | 5,453$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.72 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Boise St | 70c | 2,463$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.4 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Boise St | 64c | 2,000$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked UNLV | 53c | 1,425$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.5 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…e7dabacked UNLV | 31c | 1,215$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Boise St | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Boise St | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc0…8c5ebacked UNLV | 61c | 827.6$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked UNLV | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Boise St | 56c | 494.86$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked Boise St | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Boise St | 61c | 255.2$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…0eb0backed UNLV | 39c | 253.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…6ec7backed UNLV | 19c | 211.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Boise St | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Boise St | 66c | 165.63$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Boise St | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Boise St | 57c | 130.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed UNLV | 27c | 80.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…a941backed Boise St | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…17a7backed UNLV | 31c | 58.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +287.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…ce8fbacked Boise St | 78c | 53.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed UNLV | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…3c94backed Boise St | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…6dbebacked Boise St | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.