MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0b11a733135e041d4c920bce82d9364f9f1cf4ef32831bf676c48f78f9fe83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Houston Astros | 57c | 11,344$6,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,833.5 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 9,406$3,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,950.62 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa75e…96ebbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 6,550$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc9…2b7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 2,677$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.97 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 1,750$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.5 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Houston Astros | 43c | 1,404$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 1,065$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.86 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 1,056$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Minnesota Twins | 10c | 829.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Houston Astros | 45c | 804$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.2 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 529.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 526.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 433.92$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.45 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…53b7backed Minnesota Twins | 16c | 399.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Houston Astros | 45c | 350$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 269.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Houston Astros | 45c | 234.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed Houston Astros | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Minnesota Twins | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 175$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…9c51backed Minnesota Twins | 75c | 142.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Houston Astros | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…32f5backed Minnesota Twins | 20c | 76.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Houston Astros | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9584…380bbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…c7a4backed Houston Astros | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.