Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d20c836016106e14640375705dc6f96ca82b0668bfe223913be7be954e84748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,494 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 74c | 3,039$2,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.05 | 857 | 48.5%416 W · 441 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 26c | 2,885$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 13c | 1,785$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.64 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 1,268$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.81 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,244$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.42 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 15c | 654.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 514.19$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 27c | 370.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 168.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 24c | 129.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 85.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 26c | 82.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84bd…e6c2backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 810 | 53.6%434 W · 376 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Yes | 26c | 58.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501d…52e2backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 207 | 63.8%132 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 76c | 35.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…e58fbacked No | 77c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 72c | 19.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…4874backed No | 76c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 75c | 17.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 356 | 61.2%218 W · 138 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-10?this page
- Will Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Millwall FC win on 2026-03-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.