MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d90aac287f247cf1409f38f6be361f5b2fdff6f1106458842c79a411105d81e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 5,264$3,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,212.03 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…6d7bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 5,091$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,105.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 1,593$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.79 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 407.94$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 188.46$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.96 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4562…aa66backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 68.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d0…cd83backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f9…edbfbacked Chicago Cubs | 67c | 38.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cubs vs. BrewersBrewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.