Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Pacheco (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6da3fbf7ce4525563a5b1fe2d52d682be24f51df85149b637fc38eaadd931ed8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Shapovalov, Pacheco
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Shapovalov | 43c | 1,875$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.51 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ffe8backed Pacheco | 59c | 1,658$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.77 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Pacheco | 57c | 999$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.76 | 385 | 50.4%194 W · 191 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Pacheco | 6c | 423.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…e0e5backed Shapovalov | 48c | 286.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 262 | 63%165 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Shapovalov | 42c | 264$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Shapovalov | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 171 | 36.3%62 W · 109 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Shapovalov | 45c | 123.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Pacheco | 50c | 81.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Shapovalov | 55c | 48.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pacheco | 54c | 35.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Pacheco | 49c | 30.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Shapovalov | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Pacheco | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Pacheco (+1.5)this page
- Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Rodrigo PachecoDenis Shapovalov won
- Set 1 Winner: Shapovalov vs PachecoShapovalov won
- Set 2 Winner: Shapovalov vs PachecoShapovalov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.