Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Marozsan (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dc75877685ccc7b565f9633d45de6afa8267333a40de2ffc827481f1eb1321f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknechof Marozsan, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Marozsan | 54c | 917.42$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.8 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rinderknech | 43c | 618.05$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.49 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rinderknech | 60c | 407.23$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.89 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rinderknech | 50c | 276.56$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Marozsan | 46c | 269.79$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Rinderknech | 36c | 237.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.1 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Marozsan | 45c | 177.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Marozsan | 54c | 175.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Marozsan | 69c | 173.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 264 | 51.5%136 W · 128 L | +18.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Rinderknech | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Marozsan | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb331…4f70backed Rinderknech | 40c | 43.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…e69cbacked Rinderknech | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…c016backed Rinderknech | 66c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Marozsan (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)this page
- Dubai Tennis Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Arthur RinderknechRinderknech won
- Marozsan vs. Rinderknech: Match O/U 22.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.