Asian League · resolved market
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e11ba6dbfbf79bd513eba0ce222444e2d2dcc7ede3518e18a00d8838e52f214
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 76c | 4,029$3,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.75 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 18c | 3,795$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.23 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 36c | 1,702$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.67 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 71c | 1,135$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.9 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 2c | 1,090$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 29c | 900.3$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.05 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 686.44$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 71c | 300$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…1444backed Under | 31c | 240.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 42c | 98.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 71c | 70.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 78c | 53.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 75c | 41.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…095bbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 64c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9570…17c0backed Over | 70c | 18.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Gamba Ōsaka 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Gamba Ōsaka O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Gamba Ōsaka O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.