Asian League · resolved market
Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57789e07b281318db6afb9a7a25025914f3debb51278336a01b078ea5c78e095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gamba Ōsakaof FC Mito Holly Hock, Gamba Ōsaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 21c | 10,089$2,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,157.54 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Gamba Ōsaka | 78c | 7,630$5,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.51 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked FC Mito Holly Hock | 25c | 2,500$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.99 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Gamba Ōsaka | 74c | 1,242$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.01 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Gamba Ōsaka | 78c | 320.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Gamba Ōsaka | 78c | 195.16$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Gamba Ōsaka | 78c | 149.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked Gamba Ōsaka | 78c | 97.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Gamba Ōsaka | 79c | 93.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked FC Mito Holly Hock | 15c | 91.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Gamba Ōsaka | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Gamba Ōsaka | 78c | 86.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Gamba Ōsaka | 79c | 76.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 21c | 66.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Gamba Ōsaka | 78c | 42.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Gamba Ōsaka | 79c | 35.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Gamba Ōsaka | 76c | 25.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 53 | 69.8%37 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Gamba Ōsaka | 79c | 17.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Gamba Ōsaka 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Gamba Ōsaka O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Gamba Ōsaka O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.