Asian League · resolved market
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb5d0645fb7f169b142c240ef10c2a949661358c61f52d632dcb662577685c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 8,640$3,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,334.48 | 843 | 42.2%356 W · 487 L | +19.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 67c | 5,351$3,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.28 | 1,662 | 36.2%602 W · 1,060 L | -34.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 44c | 2,170$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.99 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 1,997$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.6 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 61c | 1,093$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.85 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.03 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…1444backed Under | 57c | 750.56$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.06 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 588.24$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.94 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 51c | 398.68$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.34 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…e7e0backed Over | 60c | 310.08$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Over | 45c | 244.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 45c | 172.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 1,464 | 35.6%521 W · 943 L | -33.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…e9acbacked Under | 57c | 141.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 56c | 131.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3440…6748backed Over | 43c | 113.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 70c | 113.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 107.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 59c | 105.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -10.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 32c | 85.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 57c | 74.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 29c | 70.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 247 | 47%116 W · 131 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 64.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 78c | 51.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 43c | 48.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 375 | 52%195 W · 180 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 47c | 42.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 71c | 41.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 71c | 41.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 44c | 41.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Over | 44c | 35.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8468backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 66c | 24.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 320 | 60%192 W · 128 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Over | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +8.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 77c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 72c | 16.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Gamba Ōsaka 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Gamba Ōsaka O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Gamba Ōsaka O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.