MLB · resolved market
Padres vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e2f1342d393f15a54dcc035d07dd03f0540cbb51613f2e198c5d5fa1a3afc61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padresof Padres, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Cardinals | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cardinals | 53c | 1,578$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cardinals | 37c | 1,401$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcce…136abacked Cardinals | 38c | 1,320$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe780…d32dbacked Cardinals | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Padres | 59c | 1,167$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.15 | 384 | 44%169 W · 215 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebd8…570cbacked Padres | 73c | 1,000$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.63 | 439 | 46%202 W · 237 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Padres | 46c | 799.99$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…8a88backed Cardinals | 7c | 732.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cardinals | 11c | 704$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…784bbacked Cardinals | 4c | 700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…fad6backed Padres | 46c | 599.99$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Cardinals | 5c | 580.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…1af4backed Padres | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed Cardinals | 54c | 468.66$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.08 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764d…e977backed Padres | 46c | 399.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Padres | 61c | 393$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.05 | 253 | 64.4%163 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Padres | 57c | 367$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.03 | 145 | 65.5%95 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Cardinals | 56c | 354.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Padres | 63c | 338.71$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.31 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Padres | 45c | 328$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.4 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a23…4e9fbacked Cardinals | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Padres | 46c | 269.77$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.68 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Padres | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.32 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Padres | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1,289 | 47.2%609 W · 680 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…a8e1backed Cardinals | 54c | 237.04$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Padres | 59c | 213.69$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 54c | 197.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.88 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Padres | 59c | 183.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 327 | 54.7%179 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Cardinals | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 55.7%214 W · 170 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Padres | 47c | 174$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa320…8232backed Cardinals | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -20.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Padres | 71c | 119.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 115 | 60%69 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Padres | 47c | 102.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Padres | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…f3fdbacked Padres | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3643…9fb9backed Cardinals | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c4…25e7backed Padres | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed Padres | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd920…b7b6backed Cardinals | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…7dc7backed Padres | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Padres | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 182 | 36.3%66 W · 116 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Padres | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1,299 | 56.7%737 W · 562 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…76a7backed Cardinals | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Padres | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 512 | 45.1%231 W · 281 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4664…21b1backed Padres | 78c | 41.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Padres | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 268 | 45.5%122 W · 146 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Padres | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Padres | 46c | 32.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Padres | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Padres | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…f553backed Cardinals | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Padres | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 426 | 51.2%218 W · 208 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…ca89backed Padres | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 235 | 43.4%102 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaeb…1506backed Cardinals | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.