Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Baez vs Wawrinka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e63f051fd9da46775dc4ea9029e28ab67f1d56b4e4bbc9c659d16341a76af82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baezof Baez, Wawrinka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Wawrinka | 51c | 763.76$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.2 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Baez | 51c | 427.7$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.95 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Wawrinka | 40c | 249.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…6b6ebacked Baez | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…72debacked Wawrinka | 35c | 202.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Baez | 49c | 200.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Baez | 61c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Wawrinka | 39c | 197.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Wawrinka | 56c | 197.27$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Baez | 60c | 196.31$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Wawrinka | 16c | 170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Baez | 61c | 137.68$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Baez | 59c | 117.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Wawrinka | 41c | 113.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Wawrinka | 39c | 95.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wawrinka | 36c | 92.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27c…3e53backed Wawrinka | 41c | 91.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Baez | 56c | 77.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baez | 62c | 69.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baez | 65c | 58.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Baez | 65c | 58.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…787cbacked Wawrinka | 38c | 49.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Baez | 60c | 45.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…48b6backed Baez | 61c | 39.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Baez | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 468 | 48.5%227 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Baez | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Baez vs Wawrinkathis page
- Baez vs. Wawrinka: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Baez vs. Wawrinka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Sebastian Baez vs Stan WawrinkaSebastian Baez won
- Sebastian Baez vs. Stan Wawrinka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Baez (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5)Baez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.