Ligue 1 · resolved market
Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ebb2ca0247bb2193c7f2831604011d6b939a61a05c1d1f7800ef4f068afdb92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Over | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 34c | 1,029$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 33c | 345.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Under | 33c | 306.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 33c | 259.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 67c | 199.27$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Under | 33c | 191.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 155.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 153.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 68c | 130$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 67c | 102.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 67c | 91.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 66c | 75.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Over | 66c | 40.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 34c | 31.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Over | 66c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 1.5this page
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 4.5Under won
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Nice (-1.5)Saint-Etienne won
- Spread: Nice (-2.5)Saint-Etienne won
- Spread: Saint-Etienne (-1.5)Nice won
- Spread: Saint-Etienne (-2.5)Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.