Ligue 1 · resolved market
Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23b1e8a4acf8c823d4e3512c82603046497f1f24ee268772df8f735ca43ef5fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x314e…af4ebacked Under | 60c | 1,032$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.58 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Over | 40c | 983.4$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 61c | 560.01$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 40c | 121$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 39c | 102.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 42c | 102.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 87.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 40c | 85.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Over | 42c | 77.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Over | 39c | 66.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 66.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Under | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…e591backed Over | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Over | 39c | 59.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96d…1a5bbacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 40c | 30.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…4f8ebacked Under | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 2.5this page
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 4.5Under won
- Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Nice (-1.5)Saint-Etienne won
- Spread: Nice (-2.5)Saint-Etienne won
- Spread: Saint-Etienne (-1.5)Nice won
- Spread: Saint-Etienne (-2.5)Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.