TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Baylor Bears (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas State Wildcatsof Baylor Bears, Kansas State Wildcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,031 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x437c…f458backed Kansas State Wildcats55c10,041$5,522 inWon+$4,518.987251.4%37 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Baylor Bears45c8,711$3,925 inLost-$3,925.1912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Baylor Bears46c3,084$1,413 inLost-$1,412.771,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Kansas State Wildcats54c1,677$903 inWon+$773.4948855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Baylor Bears8c1,032$83 inLost-$82.7770936.1%256 W · 453 L-27.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Kansas State Wildcats54c870$470 inWon+$400.292246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Baylor Bears45c572$257 inLost-$257.42,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Baylor Bears45c554.99$250 inLost-$249.756147.5%29 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Kansas State Wildcats56c535.71$300 inWon+$235.7124847.6%118 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Baylor Bears46c217.38$100 inLost-$99.994,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Kansas State Wildcats55c184.72$101 inWon+$83.3957448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff0…2e7fbacked Kansas State Wildcats54c101.85$55 inWon+$46.851266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Baylor Bears47c100$47 inLost-$4735243.2%152 W · 200 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Kansas State Wildcats55c49.09$27 inWon+$22.0924649.6%122 W · 124 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Baylor Bears45c37.36$17 inLost-$16.811,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Kansas State Wildcats54c28$15 inWon+$12.8885248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Kansas State Wildcats55c20$11 inWon+$9.0593247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Kansas State Wildcats53c20$11 inWon+$9.411354.9%62 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.