Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats: O/U 159.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf05ed8fe7acb32a86d3c617cd6823e80aa249c789ee6dab3e53db570c76239dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 49c | 15,000$7,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,599.99 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 51c | 5,593$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,852.43 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 5,262$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.78 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 51c | 4,181$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.36 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 52c | 1,325$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.85 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 50c | 870$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Over | 48c | 335.42$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.42 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 274.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.37 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 37c | 271.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.6 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Under | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 50c | 238$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa207…8461backed Under | 53c | 189.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Under | 50c | 152$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 48c | 143$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 48c | 116.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Over | 69c | 110.22$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 42c | 102.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 76c | 97.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…3c77backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +46%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 310 | 57.4%178 W · 132 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 35c | 53.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Under | 54c | 46.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 46c | 45.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 27c | 42.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…6d84backed Over | 49c | 40.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Under | 60c | 38.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 46c | 37.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Over | 48c | 28.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats: O/U 159.5this page
- Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State WildcatsKansas State Wildcats won
- Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats: O/U 161.5Over won
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-3.5)Kansas State Wildcats won
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-4.5)Kansas State Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.