MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ed63ca8bf243215a5215692ed1f48d9e93ba384b7c39a83f3480e2b85ee5d56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Orioles, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Twins | 56c | 20,353$11,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,955.24 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Orioles | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Orioles | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Orioles | 44c | 9,661$4,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250.84 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles | 45c | 6,512$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930.3 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 55c | 4,566$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.66 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Twins | 56c | 3,828$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.69 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Orioles | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Twins | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Orioles | 46c | 1,191$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.86 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Orioles | 45c | 1,160$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Twins | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Orioles | 44c | 878.86$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.7 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles | 38c | 709.81$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.18 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Orioles | 23c | 657.36$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Twins | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 43c | 430.6$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.85 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Twins | 61c | 356$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.84 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Orioles | 44c | 340$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Orioles | 44c | 320.79$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Twins | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Twins | 56c | 297$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Twins | 73c | 185$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Twins | 56c | 134.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Orioles | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Orioles | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Twins | 56c | 91.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Orioles | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Twins | 56c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Twins | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Twins | 56c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles | 44c | 52.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Twins | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Orioles | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Orioles | 46c | 37.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Twins | 56c | 37.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Twins | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Twins | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Twins | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.