Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ee12d6acdf98bd8c7949ee1600e6cee843d6ded3b2d67f42fe9f7607ea79fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 44c | 6,586$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,688.32 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 61c | 4,530$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,768.36 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed No | 12c | 1,800$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f99cbacked Yes | 47c | 999.83$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.95 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 58c | 832.91$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.09 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 46c | 604.44$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.4 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 44c | 545.45$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.45 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 52c | 535.14$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.12 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 41c | 387.45$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.1 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 49c | 315$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 50c | 296.5$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 42c | 258.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.74 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 48c | 235.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 50c | 225.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.42 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8993…222dbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 45c | 118.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc861…63afbacked Yes | 50c | 100.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Yes | 48c | 81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…e727backed Yes | 43c | 79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 54c | 77.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb531…b230backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed No | 53c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…e452backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…d24cbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f39…5bc5backed Yes | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8254backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 50c | 26.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 52c | 25.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 61c | 19.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 71c | 15.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.