Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Old Dominion Monarchs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f2a5310c83f07ab9cec03072cb2ae55af0c21ad296bfbe4c328b845efc09b7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Old Dominion Monarchsof Old Dominion Monarchs, Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Old Dominion Monarchs | 50c | 21,940$10,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,970 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 50c | 10,581$5,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,290.3 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 50c | 9,943$4,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,971.34 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 50c | 1,089$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.5 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 51c | 194.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 50c | 135.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Old Dominion Monarchs | 49c | 80.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 50c | 52.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Old Dominion Monarchs | 51c | 42.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…9c72backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Old Dominion Monarchs (-5.5)this page
- Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Old Dominion MonarchsOld Dominion Monarchs won
- Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Old Dominion Monarchs: O/U 135.5Over won
- Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Old Dominion Monarchs: O/U 136.5Over won
- Spread: Old Dominion Monarchs (-6.5)Old Dominion Monarchs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.