World Politics · resolved market
Will Labour win less than 450 seats in the next UK Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f881f6e1db4e4c4e05dcdf7cc4184710c30f3e63cbd4a5f7cff46802145882c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 52c | 2,880$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.1 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 13c | 682.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 69c | 450$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 34c | 431$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.19 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 50c | 368$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a1…fcd4backed No | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…684dbacked No | 44c | 168.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 46c | 56.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…695fbacked Yes | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5856…89d1backed Yes | 57c | 44.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b14…f682backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…e4bebacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173c…5db5backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Labour win less than 450 seats in the next UK Election?this page
- Will Labour win 525+ seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Labour win between 450 and 474 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Labour win between 475 and 499 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Labour win between 500 and 524 seats in the next UK Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.