Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: D family vs Execration - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f95028c775375174b10cfc53442122996289410f8320b7160c28737c689094e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Execrationof D family, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked D family | 62c | 552.99$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.21 | 801 | 59.1%473 W · 328 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Execration | 61c | 499.99$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked D family | 37c | 495.51$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.22 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Execration | 42c | 436.46$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.46 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed D family | 53c | 309.2$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.96 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Execration | 26c | 302.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.7 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Execration | 65c | 218.55$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed D family | 73c | 217.67$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.82 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Execration | 24c | 193.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.13 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Execration | 68c | 119.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 409 | 44.3%181 W · 228 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked D family | 32c | 115.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…e588backed D family | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Execration | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Execration | 27c | 69.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 1,263 | 49.6%627 W · 636 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Execration | 60c | 66.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Execration | 30c | 64.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 1,707 | 41.2%704 W · 1,003 L | -43.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…fa0dbacked D family | 48c | 63.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed Execration | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Execration | 67c | 44.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 914 | 56.1%513 W · 401 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked D family | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 329 | 6.4%21 W · 308 L | -102.9wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked D family | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 548 | 48.5%266 W · 282 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8b…0644backed Execration | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Execration | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed D family | 67c | 22.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c73…e6cebacked D family | 78c | 19.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: D family vs Execration - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: D family vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsExecration won
- Dota 2: D family vs Execration - Game 2 WinnerExecration won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.