World Politics · resolved market
Will VB win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f9b2be44ad64a56ac05a99b89a95e2729bc9febe49aa44eeb8d806279d714bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 73c | 5,749$4,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,219.31 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 2c | 3,655$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 80c | 3,636$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,894.41 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 27c | 3,279$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,387.53 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…2a54backed Yes | 50c | 2,424$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 71c | 1,900$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed Yes | 77c | 1,877$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked No | 31c | 974.34$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 3c | 950$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.35 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeca…7377backed Yes | 79c | 759.49$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…0b65backed No | 5c | 677.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,821.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 50c | 660$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.2 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 4c | 319.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.85 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…f552backed No | 6c | 200.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,567.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…8e55backed Yes | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 77c | 19.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VB win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections?this page
- Will CD&V win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections?No won
- Will Ecolo win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections?No won
- Will Groen win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections?No won
- Will MR win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections?No won
- Will Open Vld win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections?No won
- Will PS win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections?No won
- Will PTB win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections?No won
- Will Vooruit win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections?No won
- Will the N-VA win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.