Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc38b04eb6c20e4dd8fc800ee8723d32b81d7e9aa2a471687a53d20a250f08e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof VP.Prodigy, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 1,521$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.38 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked VP.Prodigy | 26c | 1,388$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.8 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked VP.Prodigy | 45c | 848.59$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.94 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 830.91$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.91 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 426.03$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.19 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 247.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 237.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 196.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Nemiga Gaming | 72c | 195.67$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 137.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked VP.Prodigy | 39c | 123.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Nemiga Gaming | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed VP.Prodigy | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Nemiga Gaming | 72c | 51.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -6.5wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…3539backed VP.Prodigy | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed VP.Prodigy | 45c | 39.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked VP.Prodigy | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.