Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Lulu Sun
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fe51dcba1d664ff9fd7240cd109a3771aa93ab6feb120bd54a3122f66ede3df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunof Maneiro, Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sun | 53c | 9,044$4,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224.13 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Maneiro | 58c | 7,494$4,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,318.11 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sun | 54c | 5,922$3,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.23 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Maneiro | 38c | 2,507$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.3 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Maneiro | 45c | 2,320$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.06 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Sun | 46c | 2,250$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sun | 51c | 1,860$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.44 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Maneiro | 42c | 1,397$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.87 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Maneiro | 27c | 1,107$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Maneiro | 48c | 1,050$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.4 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Maneiro | 47c | 1,050$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.5 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…8e6bbacked Maneiro | 29c | 802.97$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Maneiro | 72c | 748$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.81 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Maneiro | 49c | 600$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Maneiro | 43c | 576.84$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.04 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Maneiro | 20c | 550$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Maneiro | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Maneiro | 53c | 254.72$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Maneiro | 10c | 249.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Maneiro | 14c | 219.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Maneiro | 53c | 179$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Maneiro | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Sun | 52c | 81.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sun | 45c | 81.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Maneiro | 17c | 69.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Maneiro | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sun | 46c | 60.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Maneiro | 56c | 43.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…326ebacked Sun | 72c | 34.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…6ebcbacked Sun | 62c | 31.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Maneiro | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.