CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Arch vs DNK (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ff979b6caa39dfbc2bbb0439db83660df99020b03baba3fbda6e9ebe490ec86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DNKof Arch, DNK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed DNK | 49c | 3,998$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.07 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Arch | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Arch | 50c | 550$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 172 | 40.1%69 W · 103 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked DNK | 50c | 464$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.14 | 351 | 31.1%109 W · 242 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked DNK | 51c | 180$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 324 | 63%204 W · 120 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Arch | 72c | 178.25$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Arch | 55c | 143.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 399 | 55.4%221 W · 178 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Arch | 23c | 132.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed DNK | 25c | 83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 883 | 30.7%271 W · 612 L | -63.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Arch | 19c | 80.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 664 | 36.6%243 W · 421 L | -35.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Arch | 16c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Arch | 22c | 74.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Arch | 50c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Arch | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Arch | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Arch | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 215 | 36.3%78 W · 137 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Arch | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Arch | 51c | 55.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Arch | 31c | 51.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 270 | 37.8%102 W · 168 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Arch | 54c | 42.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 136 | 42.6%58 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed DNK | 46c | 27.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…6cedbacked DNK | 58c | 24.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.