Asian League · resolved market
Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x701ae45ef836a011a58e97f75432565c982eabf04e31b4aaa37c9e77492adfa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 70c | 3,705$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.37 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d37backed Yes | 32c | 2,813$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 2,634$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.49 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,496$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 27c | 754.5$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.09 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 22c | 251.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 74c | 236.88$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Yes | 9c | 211.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 167.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 74c | 144.3$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca5…a155backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…56fdbacked No | 75c | 134.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Yes | 29c | 127.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 74c | 89.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 26c | 83.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 25c | 79.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 73.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…b944backed Yes | 26c | 73.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 77c | 72.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 77c | 64.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 31c | 60.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 50.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…1faebacked Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f8…898ebacked No | 74c | 19.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-06?No won
- Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.