Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Aleksandar Vukic vs Daniel Altmaier
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x701c3dc12197af057511083ed92b2662cb12aa8339b0b167b8f615a5765594d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vukicof Vukic, Altmaier
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Altmaier | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vukic | 46c | 3,448$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.84 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Altmaier | 18c | 2,649$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.08 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Altmaier | 20c | 2,182$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.31 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Altmaier | 22c | 1,941$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.19 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Vukic | 46c | 1,530$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.24 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Altmaier | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Vukic | 46c | 1,003$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.5 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Vukic | 47c | 726.04$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.82 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc2…8b96backed Altmaier | 52c | 385$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Vukic | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Altmaier | 24c | 240$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Altmaier | 27c | 190.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Altmaier | 54c | 158.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Vukic | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Altmaier | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Altmaier | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.