TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Austin: Kimberly Birrell vs Ella Seidel

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kimberly Birrellof Kimberly Birrell, Ella Seidel
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,435

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,435 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Ella Seidel35c1,773$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.952,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Kimberly Birrell62c1,110$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.626,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Ella Seidel5c888.62$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.492,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Ella Seidel27c870.37$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23599139.9%395 W · 596 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kimberly Birrell60c831.65$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.418,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kimberly Birrell70c726.6$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.322,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b14…4e3bbacked Ella Seidel14c520.14$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.821136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Ella Seidel47c427$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Ella Seidel36c315$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.41,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Kimberly Birrell67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9970752.8%373 W · 334 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae5…f4cabacked Ella Seidel17c258.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445824.1%14 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Ella Seidel48c247.51$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.632,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Kimberly Birrell63c237.5$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.082,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Ella Seidel17c220$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.449632.3%160 W · 336 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Kimberly Birrell62c191.32$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0338147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Ella Seidel41c185.08$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.029,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Ella Seidel39c168.01$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.284,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Ella Seidel19c166.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.630225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Kimberly Birrell64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Kimberly Birrell63c140.27$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2853752.3%281 W · 256 L+2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Ella Seidel16c135$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.333,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Ella Seidel36c128.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7728933.2%96 W · 193 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Kimberly Birrell70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3077967.8%528 W · 251 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ella Seidel28c93.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.367,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kimberly Birrell64c91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.761,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Kimberly Birrell64c78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0860055.7%334 W · 266 L+2.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Ella Seidel36c78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.082,04347.8%977 W · 1,066 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Ella Seidel33c62.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.796,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3578…f163backed Kimberly Birrell66c60.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5339872.4%288 W · 110 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Kimberly Birrell77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0697046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Ella Seidel41c52.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4736333.9%123 W · 240 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7789…d6c0backed Kimberly Birrell56c49.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.999455.3%52 W · 42 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Ella Seidel35c49.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.491,83253%971 W · 861 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Kimberly Birrell78c47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2737342.6%159 W · 214 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca6…3841backed Ella Seidel38c46.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.497441.9%31 W · 43 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Ella Seidel33c44.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.681,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Ella Seidel38c43.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7127546.5%128 W · 147 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4820…bc0fbacked Kimberly Birrell61c26.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.474650%23 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Ella Seidel38c26.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Ella Seidel39c25.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.153,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.