South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702da8bf962ba3b87697da723a44c1c2fb74a0e11ca6fdb8a7a83bd7be5ae59f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagroof CA River Plate, CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CA River Plate | 31c | 1,096$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.82 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CA San Lorenzo de Almagro | 71c | 765.95$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.72 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed CA San Lorenzo de Almagro | 69c | 660$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed CA River Plate | 26c | 399$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed CA River Plate | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CA San Lorenzo de Almagro | 76c | 160.6$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed CA River Plate | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed CA San Lorenzo de Almagro | 71c | 84.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed CA River Plate | 47c | 53.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked CA San Lorenzo de Almagro | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed CA San Lorenzo de Almagro | 71c | 27.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)this page
- CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.