Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x709730c064199b5d6ef9afcb8b72acaebb81bed154e79961cd6fe00a6e7f4a19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 3c | 785.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 74c | 417.43$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.49 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 220.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 60c | 178.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…e4d3backed Yes | 61c | 158.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 21c | 106.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 38c | 89.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 81.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 31c | 71.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed No | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 35c | 47.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 60c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 35.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?No won
- Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?No won
- Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.