MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7130744a06999ed8e6a042fb2ae6f0c7fe1b9ede123f88ba48cedd5f008cbcdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 16,807$12,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,710.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 11,183$3,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,122.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 9,000$4,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 8,464$4,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,062.49 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 2,979$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 2,283$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.31 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 2,053$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.53 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 1,214$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.19 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 482.48$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.59 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 420$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 318.04$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 263.88$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 234$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 189.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 26c | 188.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b36bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a6…3606backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 119.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 69.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 30c | 53.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 45.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 32.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…b31bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 26.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 26.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.