CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: NIP vs SAW (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71daf15dc2d1be41db7ad35ad95032f9b21384e715e79b3bbcfe02bc3097e7ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NIPof NIP, SAW
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,290 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed SAW | 16c | 1,661$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.31 | 387 | 39.5%153 W · 234 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a60…d74fbacked SAW | 17c | 1,200$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked SAW | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 275 | 30.9%85 W · 190 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed SAW | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 267 | 43.1%115 W · 152 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed SAW | 10c | 385.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed SAW | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed SAW | 7c | 336.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf872…f7ffbacked SAW | 12c | 336.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked SAW | 11c | 313.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed SAW | 7c | 300.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 380 | 37.4%142 W · 238 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked NIP | 70c | 256.4$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed SAW | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 503 | 40.2%202 W · 301 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…f786backed SAW | 13c | 221.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 131 | 19.8%26 W · 105 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9a01backed SAW | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 439 | 33.7%148 W · 291 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed SAW | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…1e82backed SAW | 11c | 189.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed SAW | 17c | 184.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed SAW | 16c | 168.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | +20.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SAW | 16c | 126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…374abacked SAW | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed SAW | 11c | 112.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed SAW | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked SAW | 15c | 101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed SAW | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…9848backed SAW | 16c | 92.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed SAW | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked SAW | 17c | 71.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NIP | 76c | 50.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked NIP | 77c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.