World Politics · resolved market
Trump meets with Carney in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71f4f5c54c5bcb0d869210435e29b2600e8d0b290d39eaf15566d37b6514dfeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67ec…157fbacked Yes | 0c | 42,159$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 7c | 2,558$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,153$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Yes | 8c | 1,582$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,513$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes | 8c | 1,008$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…2e97backed Yes | 3c | 801.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf4…8f44backed Yes | 8c | 627.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc152…4b04backed Yes | 15c | 471.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 19c | 460$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…6a2cbacked Yes | 22c | 449.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34d…016cbacked Yes | 22c | 449.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…612ebacked Yes | 22c | 449.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed4…df70backed Yes | 22c | 449.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…83afbacked Yes | 22c | 449.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 18c | 423.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 293.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…a79bbacked Yes | 4c | 280$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 21c | 193.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 155.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 10c | 129.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fa…bda2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5b09backed No | 72c | 55.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2147…91ffbacked Yes | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 55c | 24.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 56c | 18.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.