CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7238f53d898d4b63d0b77565307c6c2295c26ea5facf5fcea263c999f7635a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marsborneof Marsborne, Overtake
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked Marsborne | 77c | 1,350$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Overtake | 23c | 1,350$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.19 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed Overtake | 27c | 1,194$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.55 | 858 | 51.6%443 W · 415 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Overtake | 9c | 499.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Marsborne | 73c | 451.43$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked Marsborne | 76c | 375$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Overtake | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed Overtake | 20c | 214.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Marsborne | 77c | 162.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Marsborne | 73c | 160.3$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d4…2f1ebacked Marsborne | 76c | 156.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 291 | 56.7%165 W · 126 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Overtake | 10c | 138.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Marsborne | 79c | 134.69$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 380 | 37.4%142 W · 238 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7070…821cbacked Marsborne | 79c | 126.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…e974backed Marsborne | 80c | 124.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Overtake | 24c | 107.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Overtake | 10c | 99.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Marsborne | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 405 | 42%170 W · 235 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Overtake | 21c | 80.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…2c9bbacked Marsborne | 79c | 76.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Overtake | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…8c1cbacked Marsborne | 79c | 33.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db1…528cbacked Marsborne | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake - Map 1 WinnerMarsborne won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.