Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will IF Elfsborg beat FK Qarabag?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x729c82c86d4b69514ec8d7f1457f453b134aa316276a37f44f5eb9c7f5f16149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 40c | 1,061$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.44 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed No | 76c | 770.88$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 61c | 601.54$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.94 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Yes | 39c | 528$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.76 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Yes | 39c | 528$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 24c | 344$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.44 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 249.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Yes | 40c | 196$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 74c | 104.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 24c | 100.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 39c | 70.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed No | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +115%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…ac87backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…235fbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will IF Elfsborg beat FK Qarabag?this page
- Will FK Qarabag beat IF Elfsborg?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.