Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72b147d9822976ba09da69f13cd44d05bbfe719c83d6292f653dab3a43ae71cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 3c | 889.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 9c | 410$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 309.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 231.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 11c | 211.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 182.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 19c | 172.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…0f8fbacked No | 72c | 167.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 19c | 151.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…5e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 149.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 22c | 137.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 133.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 17c | 114.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 24c | 106.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 93.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 82.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 73.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed Yes | 36c | 70.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 69.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 31c | 67.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…c957backed Yes | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9f…0bcabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 26c | 42.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 77c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 50c | 27.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 59c | 27.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…1950backed Yes | 41c | 27.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +279.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 79c | 27.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 80c | 24.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 18.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 77c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.