Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8763aa397350972f341ba7f476414f34a83f26dee5e8c5ee7949b647bf71da2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,457 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Yes | 74c | 1,022$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.57 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…0f8fbacked Yes | 63c | 470.45$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 9c | 432.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 315.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 224.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…d6fbbacked No | 41c | 173.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 65c | 165.78$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 61c | 163.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 60c | 150.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 75c | 136.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 73c | 128.45$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 33c | 119.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 38c | 106.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 100.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 75c | 82.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…19abbacked No | 40c | 75.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 68.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 22c | 64.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 71c | 63.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba7…69fbbacked No | 35c | 51.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 24c | 48.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 77c | 48.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 59c | 45.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 30c | 43.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked No | 39c | 43.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…29f3backed No | 30c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Yes | 76c | 29.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 68c | 28.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…2cd1backed Yes | 71c | 28.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 76c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 77c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed No | 57c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…75d5backed No | 46c | 21.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 70c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x857d…f02fbacked No | 53c | 19.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 67c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…7797backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.