Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72b2dcda6e8735075d5fd74a43054559389b0b22f4aa073f78fbf60833318352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 1,200$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.99 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked VP.Prodigy | 29c | 1,076$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.08 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 1,058$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.16 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Yellow Submarine | 71c | 997.03$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.14 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed VP.Prodigy | 26c | 895.15$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.53 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed VP.Prodigy | 25c | 847.72$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.6 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 841.92$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.78 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yellow Submarine | 79c | 813.74$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.67 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 695.14$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.69 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 652.67$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.75 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c52…677dbacked Yellow Submarine | 79c | 472.88$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 437.27$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 340.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked VP.Prodigy | 27c | 332.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed VP.Prodigy | 20c | 317.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 311.76$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked VP.Prodigy | 24c | 309.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 20c | 308.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…101cbacked Yellow Submarine | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed VP.Prodigy | 22c | 148.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked VP.Prodigy | 29c | 147.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 142.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked VP.Prodigy | 22c | 107$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Yellow Submarine | 73c | 59.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Yellow Submarine | 74c | 57.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed VP.Prodigy | 26c | 55.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…19eebacked Yellow Submarine | 78c | 46.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Yellow Submarine | 73c | 28.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 173 | 60.7%105 W · 68 L | -13.6wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5)Yellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.