NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72e741173dff95b652a684a46f4825ab92826840dd59d562609b30cb1afe5a5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8d9…48b5backed Under | 45c | 6,500$2,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,575 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 55c | 6,483$3,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,535.99 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 45c | 6,483$2,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,535.99 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8915…a2dcbacked Over | 55c | 5,400$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…a6bcbacked Under | 45c | 5,100$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,805 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe886…b69abacked Under | 45c | 4,800$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e1…5a60backed Under | 45c | 4,400$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,420 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3b…9c54backed Under | 45c | 4,200$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…664bbacked Over | 55c | 3,900$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…0770backed Over | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…711dbacked Over | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045f…964bbacked Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f9cdbacked Over | 55c | 2,800$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…95dfbacked Over | 55c | 2,800$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae38…66aabacked Over | 55c | 2,565$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 57c | 2,200$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…ecc9backed Under | 45c | 2,200$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 43c | 2,190$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.06 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 52c | 437.5$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 45c | 258$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 47c | 32.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Over | 53c | 25.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5this page
- Rangers vs. Red WingsRangers won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Rangers won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.