MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x732afe1ac8b404eee7443f184d6985799c17d5dd36a2ea51caa4a1e10b6f3523
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 643.22$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 513.47$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.03 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Athletics | 59c | 271.45$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.16 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 222.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.09 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 58c | 154.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 59c | 149.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Athletics | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 100.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 91.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics | 60c | 64.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Athletics | 60c | 64.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Athletics | 60c | 64.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Athletics | 60c | 64.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Athletics | 60c | 64.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Athletics | 60c | 64.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Athletics | 60c | 64.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Athletics | 60c | 64.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Athletics | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Athletics | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Athletics | 56c | 55.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 53.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Athletics | 60c | 41.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Athletics | 60c | 41.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 40.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…6518backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 29.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…59e2backed Athletics | 59c | 25.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Athletics | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- NRFI: Athletics vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.