MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1fa814a1e2b8e97cff41ee43845e07cac4d04ee4230ed856e44b7b211056656
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Over | 53c | 4,245$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.71 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 3,817$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.2 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 2,200$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.42 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 46c | 667.98$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.71 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 54c | 302.28$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 45c | 249.09$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 154.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 63c | 84.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Over | 55c | 67.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 45c | 49.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8d…8a4fbacked Over | 55c | 45.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 47c | 42.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 42.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 35c | 42.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 54c | 40.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 64c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Under | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 31c | 32.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…333ebacked Over | 67c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- NRFI: Athletics vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.