Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x735b01b59366d6e643d0b319ef2c4713bb22aa8ec78a7539935573c6dd72eb3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cloud Dawningof Cloud Dawning, Team Refuser
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2775…3652backed Cloud Dawning | 52c | 3,284$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.12 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…f76cbacked Team Refuser | 60c | 2,369$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.78 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Refuser | 48c | 1,499$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.48 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Cloud Dawning | 42c | 1,399$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.45 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Team Refuser | 64c | 1,243$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.21 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Team Refuser | 50c | 994$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Cloud Dawning | 50c | 986$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Cloud Dawning | 40c | 943.99$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.39 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Refuser | 44c | 910.67$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.98 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Cloud Dawning | 35c | 716.55$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.9 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Cloud Dawning | 40c | 654.77$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.77 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Team Refuser | 72c | 644.84$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.94 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Team Refuser | 66c | 504.31$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Refuser | 64c | 475$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.28 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Team Refuser | 6c | 422.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed Team Refuser | 66c | 390$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Cloud Dawning | 30c | 370.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.37 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…31d6backed Cloud Dawning | 29c | 341.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Refuser | 68c | 234.21$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.08 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cloud Dawning | 34c | 213.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.22 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Team Refuser | 6c | 212$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cloud Dawning | 37c | 208.78$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.05 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Refuser | 54c | 201.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Cloud Dawning | 41c | 169.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Refuser | 58c | 141.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Team Refuser | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +26.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Team Refuser | 35c | 113$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Team Refuser | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Cloud Dawning | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Team Refuser | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +15.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed Team Refuser | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Refuser | 60c | 89.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Team Refuser | 31c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Team Refuser | 31c | 83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Team Refuser | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Team Refuser | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ada…c921backed Team Refuser | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Team Refuser | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Team Refuser | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cloud Dawning | 35c | 59.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cloud Dawning | 38c | 53.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Cloud Dawning | 32c | 51.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Team Refuser | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Team Refuser | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Team Refuser | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Team Refuser | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Cloud Dawning | 33c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked Cloud Dawning | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Refuser | 55c | 18.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Refuser (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China PlayoffsCloud Dawning won
- Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Refuser - Game 1 WinnerCloud Dawning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.