South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Cruz Azul vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x737f90457513e27df4bac07ab21429a0d5e0bfb9dedfcf15faebe46c9f374d3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fd9…1ef0backed Under | 45c | 18,777$8,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,449.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 9,909$5,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,459.06 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 55c | 4,894$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,202.15 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 55c | 1,015$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.75 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 53c | 322$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.34 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Over | 55c | 312$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 279.1$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.53 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 217.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 39c | 176.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 45c | 135$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 55c | 71.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 19c | 66.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 62c | 37.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 34.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Over | 78c | 28.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250b…383fbacked Over | 63c | 25.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 66c | 20.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 55c | 20.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Over | 76c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…d3fbbacked Over | 77c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…8c66backed Over | 77c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Over | 77c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Over | 77c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 77c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CF Pachuca: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)CF Pachuca won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-2.5)CF Pachuca won
- Spread: CF Pachuca (-1.5)CF Cruz Azul won
- Spread: CF Pachuca (-2.5)CF Cruz Azul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.