South American Leagues · resolved market
FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73ca9e20267a7f166b3a3af3631e815fda7173b29b4c403a12a6df07e26ea47d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 483.29$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 13c | 323.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 14c | 297.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 42c | 229.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 130.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…fa07backed Under | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 17c | 125.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1b…c69cbacked Over | 21c | 79.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…726abacked Over | 42c | 68.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 17c | 65.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 23c | 59.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Over | 37c | 58.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 28c | 53.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 41c | 40.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 80c | 39.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 55c | 34.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 71c | 27.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 60c | 19.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…9852backed Under | 59c | 19.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)Atlético San Luis won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)Atlético San Luis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.