Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275-$280 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d980a67cd8bc8d6cdbce27260062faff9f4aef45aaf386a09148cb979d0c84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 57c | 1,367$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.48 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e52…7ad2backed Yes | 10c | 530.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d5…331dbacked Yes | 37c | 165$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32fe…4fd9backed No | 63c | 151$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 71c | 146.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f95…8e86backed Yes | 77c | 57.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 48.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 59c | 46.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc606…bb89backed Yes | 48c | 29.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 26.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275-$280 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $255-$260 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $260-$265 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $265-$270 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $270-$275 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $280-$285 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $285-$290 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $295-$300 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$255 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.