TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Apple (AAPL) close at $280-$285 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,463

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,314 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x978c…7e69backed Yes48c4,000$1,910 inLost-$1,910.3825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-63.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed Yes51c1,951$1,000 inLost-$1,000.171,11143.7%486 W · 625 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes44c256.17$113 inLost-$112.66361.9%39 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No54c221.56$120 inWon+$101.97332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1288…dac9backed Yes54c200$108 inLost-$108825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-64.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3974…cbeabacked No48c176$84 inWon+$91.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7f…25ecbacked Yes52c168$87 inLost-$87.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No61c108$66 inWon+$42.1286338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes26c105$27 inLost-$27.356548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No50c100$50 inWon+$509835.7%35 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes34c90.4$31 inLost-$311,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No58c89.97$52 inWon+$38.144452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60c3…f8f7backed Yes26c80$21 inLost-$20.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf23…51a0backed Yes40c75.38$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Yes17c60$10 inLost-$10.2728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No60c54$32 inWon+$21.875964.4%38 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf179…d628backed No48c50$24 inWon+$26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…5c4fbacked Yes52c50$26 inLost-$26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes54c40$22 inLost-$21.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No60c39.43$24 inWon+$15.913342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x747e…7a9abacked No74c30.26$22 inWon+$7.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No55c20$11 inWon+$910749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.