Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e7d15dee2a3cc1216bdb5885e0203a7a748900e0c41854aa72930da2414c78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 63c | 579.19$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 3c | 499.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 72c | 461.2$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.46 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 331.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 311.14$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 14c | 263.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 11c | 260.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 239.67$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 22c | 214.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 187.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 7c | 158.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 16c | 148.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 112.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 45c | 106.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 105.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 99.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 93.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 16c | 92.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd839…26ddbacked No | 66c | 77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 76.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 41c | 69.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 15c | 68.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…521bbacked Yes | 34c | 67.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…2e6cbacked No | 66c | 65.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…7d4bbacked Yes | 36c | 60.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 71c | 51.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…d26ebacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 49.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 52c | 48.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 28c | 48.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…55d8backed Yes | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 47.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…0c2ebacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 62c | 43.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 46c | 43.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed Yes | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 66c | 41.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 39.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 68c | 29.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 65c | 23.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 15.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.