Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x740b5a947b92ffece54d2c78302eaade17f68bf48b4ba43ca6a48f52b64ef170
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 38c | 499.8$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.92 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed No | 60c | 323.4$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 40c | 280.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 61c | 278.18$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 207.04$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5f…6cecbacked Yes | 39c | 153.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 61c | 146.29$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…9a30backed Yes | 39c | 74.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 61c | 69.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f23abacked Yes | 39c | 61.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked No | 62c | 55.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…f987backed Yes | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2290…eddebacked Yes | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 62c | 28.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 62c | 28.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 27.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…109cbacked No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC leading at halftime?this page
- Sporting CP leading at halftime?No won
- Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.