Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7435f75b7419b0ea60bc9246b7b6b43cfb10810c31a5464678f5249bd635b8c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darderiof Darderi, Hijikata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Hijikata | 13c | 4,499$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.46 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Hijikata | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Darderi | 58c | 1,977$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.94 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Hijikata | 43c | 1,000$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.55 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Darderi | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Hijikata | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Darderi | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Darderi | 62c | 807.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.33 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Hijikata | 38c | 691$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.58 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Hijikata | 24c | 600$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…3e01backed Hijikata | 26c | 340$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Darderi | 63c | 317.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Darderi | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hijikata | 39c | 298.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.32 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Darderi | 57c | 297.23$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.81 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Hijikata | 38c | 255.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Hijikata | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Hijikata | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Darderi | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Darderi | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Darderi | 61c | 138.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Hijikata | 24c | 123.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Hijikata | 37c | 51.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…e49cbacked Darderi | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Hijikata | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Hijikata | 37c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Darderi | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Darderi | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Darderi | 63c | 31.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Darderi | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…4eb0backed Darderi | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Darderi | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Darderi | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa021…4d00backed Darderi | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.