Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x743b715cc1059d30ccef5fde5178146879927f20cf47cd492b4f4643b7cdabe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof AVULUS, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,477 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yellow Submarine | 61c | 878.88$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.96 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed AVULUS | 24c | 856.86$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.8 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yellow Submarine | 74c | 756.26$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.2 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked AVULUS | 35c | 600$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed AVULUS | 32c | 563.53$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.54 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed AVULUS | 31c | 412$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.81 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine | 64c | 350$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Yellow Submarine | 78c | 349$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.75 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Yellow Submarine | 71c | 317.61$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.5 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 314.08$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.43 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 296$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked AVULUS | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Yellow Submarine | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 184.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed AVULUS | 18c | 149.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked AVULUS | 32c | 145.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.66 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked AVULUS | 23c | 140$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed AVULUS | 34c | 123$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Yellow Submarine | 70c | 112.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed AVULUS | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked AVULUS | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Yellow Submarine | 70c | 49.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Yellow Submarine | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 31.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yellow Submarine | 46c | 26.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Yellow Submarine | 51c | 23.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb68…c695backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Yellow Submarine | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Yellow Submarine | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs AVULUS (+1.5)AVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.